Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.090692 0.100786 0.111133 0.122504 0.134624 0.147129 0.160982
2025-02-09 0.073687 0.088717 0.104907 0.123522 0.144212 0.166389 0.191842
2025-02-16 0.060216 0.078093 0.098237 0.122320 0.150038 0.180668 0.216801
2025-02-23 0.054134 0.074680 0.098691 0.128289 0.163266 0.202794 0.250350
2025-03-02 0.048950 0.071478 0.098690 0.133140 0.174777 0.222720 0.281335
2025-03-09 0.041311 0.064267 0.093012 0.130446 0.176753 0.231087 0.298587
2025-03-16 0.034541 0.057370 0.087016 0.126710 0.176912 0.236867 0.312453
2025-03-23 0.031964 0.055790 0.087581 0.131010 0.186805 0.254264 0.340175
2025-03-30 0.029145 0.053543 0.087006 0.133636 0.194468 0.268891 0.364585
2025-04-06 0.027223 0.052372 0.087716 0.137824 0.204050 0.285884 0.391952
2025-04-13 0.024152 0.049152 0.085328 0.137663 0.207882 0.295638 0.410416
2025-04-20 0.023864 0.050199 0.088957 0.145674 0.222417 0.318931 0.445793
2025-04-27 0.021433 0.047750 0.087620 0.147101 0.228716 0.332422 0.469847
2025-05-04 0.019562 0.046058 0.087312 0.149963 0.237026 0.348686 0.497722
2025-05-11 0.017007 0.042894 0.084567 0.149210 0.240387 0.358584 0.517655
2025-05-18 0.016469 0.043257 0.087222 0.156244 0.254411 0.382428 0.555501
2025-05-25 0.015673 0.043043 0.088913 0.161855 0.266511 0.403841 0.590388
2025-06-01 0.013264 0.039430 0.084906 0.158817 0.266433 0.409115 0.604452
2025-06-08 0.010948 0.035622 0.080272 0.154566 0.264436 0.411686 0.614912
2025-06-15 0.010390 0.035422 0.081653 0.159474 0.275434 0.431656 0.648100
2025-06-22 0.009580 0.034558 0.081822 0.162467 0.283695 0.447993 0.676637
2025-06-29 0.009093 0.034363 0.083126 0.167233 0.294541 0.467888 0.709958
2025-07-06 0.007973 0.032507 0.081356 0.167051 0.298158 0.477970 0.730398